Rising Exports, Policy Strength Drive Global Upgrades to China’s 2025 Outlook

As 2025 nears its close, a growing number of international economic institutions are revising their forecasts for China upward, signalling renewed confidence in the country’s long-term growth trajectory. Despite global uncertainties — including geopolitical tensions and trade pressures — analysts widely agree that China’s strong fundamentals, evolving industrial structure and active policy measures will continue to support stable expansion.

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs upgraded China’s expected GDP growth for 2025 from 4.9 percent to 5 percent, while also projecting stronger performance in the years ahead. The firm anticipates that China’s exports will grow significantly faster than previously estimated, driven by increasing global demand for Chinese products and improving competitiveness across industries.

 

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) echoed this optimism, raising its own 2025 growth projection for China to 5 percent. The OECD highlighted China’s proactive fiscal measures, including steps to boost household consumption and upgrade major sectors such as automobiles and home appliances, as important contributors to economic resilience.

Financial institutions around the world point to China’s strong policy toolkit as another factor supporting the positive outlook. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that Beijing’s expanded fiscal initiatives — including a new 500-billion-yuan policy-based financial instrument — are set to fuel domestic demand through late 2025 and early 2026. A recent Morgan Stanley assessment similarly predicts steady growth next year, supported by targeted policy easing and gradual structural rebalancing.

Chinese financial experts have also voiced their confidence. Economists at Everbright Securities emphasized the advantages of China’s vast domestic market and robust industrial supply chain, while analysts at China International Capital Corporation observed continued improvements in foreign-trade composition and competitiveness. New consumption trends — such as lifestyle-driven products and rising domestic brands — are also emerging as important growth engines.

Global companies appear to share the upbeat sentiment. Major international firms have increased their investment activities in China throughout the year, from new manufacturing facilities to innovation centres and logistics hubs. Recently, AP Moller-Maersk launched a large new logistics facility in Shanghai, while multinational healthcare and industrial players expanded operations in Beijing and Zhejiang Province.

 

China’s major trade expos further reflect this momentum. This year’s import expo in Shanghai posted record intended deals, while the Canton Fair drew its highest number of overseas buyers in years, indicating strong confidence in China’s market opportunities.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s economy continues to demonstrate stability, resilience and high-quality development — qualities that global observers now increasingly recognize. As global institutions upgrade their projections, China’s role as a key contributor to worldwide growth appears set to strengthen in the years ahead.