US-Iran Friction Ignites Crude Rally; BPCL, IOCL, and HPCL Shares Under Pressure

MUMBAI, February 13, 2026:  India’s primary Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) — Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) — witnessed a concerted sell-off in today’s trading session. The downturn is a direct response to a surge in global crude benchmarks as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continue to cloud the energy supply outlook.

Market Data Overview (Live Update: 13:30 IST)

The following table summarizes the impact on key energy equities as risk-averse sentiment pervades the domestic markets:

Macro-Economic Catalyst: The US-Iran Impasse

The primary driver behind today's market movement is the re-introduction of a "geopolitical risk premium." Recent naval movements in the Persian Gulf and diplomatic friction between Washington and Tehran have sparked fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

While international markets previously saw a slight cooling due to rising U.S. crude inventories, the focus has shifted back to the potential for military escalation or tighter sanctions, which historically pushes Brent prices toward the psychological $70 threshold.

Impact on Downstream Financials

For Indian OMCs, the rally in crude oil is a double-edged sword that threatens immediate profitability:

• Marketing Margin Compression: Higher procurement costs for kachcha tel (crude), if not passed on to consumers via retail price hikes, directly erode the marketing margins of these state-run firms.

• Refining Outlook: While gross refining margins (GRMs) remain stable, the rapid inflation of input costs is forcing institutional investors to de-risk their portfolios, leading to the current slide in share prices.

• Technical Breakdown: BPCL and HPCL are currently testing critical support levels near their 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). A failure to hold these levels could invite further short-term corrections.

Analyst Commentary

Market analysts suggest that the energy sector remains in a "wait-and-watch" mode. "The market is currently reacting to headlines rather than fundamentals. Unless there is a clear diplomatic de-escalation between the US and Iran, the pressure on import-dependent entities like IOCL and HPCL will likely persist," noted a senior energy strategist at a leading Mumbai brokerage.